C53 - Forecasting Models; Simulation MethodsReturn

The financial performance and financial health of companies is given through the ability to generate added value. For the resulting effect of creating added value, maximum activity is required. Otherwise, companies have significant payment difficulties that can be resolved by a radical change in its activities or structure. The aim of this paper is to indicate potential threat of the financial distress of selected public limited companies in Poland. The financial health of companies is analysed by Taffler's bankruptcy model. The construction of the predictive models and the bankruptcy models are based on actual data from companies which were threatened by bankruptcy in previous years. The Taffler's bankruptcy model is applied on the annual financial results of public limited companies in Poland from 2006 to 2015. The results indicated that 12 % of public limited companies in Poland had financial problems during observed period.

Output gap belongs between imporant indicator of central banks by their executing monetary policy despite output gap is an unobservable variable. Because of importance of accurate measurement of output gap, there are more methods for estimation. The aim of this paper is to discover if univariate and multivariate unobserved components models contribute to more precise measurement of output gap. For confirmation or refusal of this hypothesis, Clark's model (1989) and Kuttner's model (1994) will be used. All two models will be analysed and their advantages and disadvantages will be shown. Results of estimations will be compared with papers dealing with output gap for czech economy. Then, the ability of output gap to forecast inflation will be analysed. At last, multivariate unobserved componenets model will be labeled after some tests as the most suitable method for estimation of output gap.

Technology analysis (TA) should help provide incentives for systematic and purposeful innovation of technological processes, technological infrastructure and an integrated technology enterprise system. TA is to some extent also a macro-discipline, because of the need of analysts for wider cooperation with environment for more comprehensive results, wider accepted technology, and improvement of efficiency of Technology management (TM). Technology radar as a possible first step of systematic TA processes is the specific instrument for enhancing technology business intelligence capabilities, especially as regards to the better use of future market opportunities. One of the most important part of TA is becoming so-called Future-oriented technology analysis that is aimed at exploring the potential of technological opportunities and risks, strengths and weaknesses of the technology, as well as raising awareness and anticipation of TM or consensus-building for corporate technology planning. This study has primarily a methodological character and deals with the partial specification of TA processes and connections, with the need to build Technology radar in a company, and with the increased use of patent TA. The methodology is based on the analysis of scientific literature, several case studies and partial Patent analysis of the European Patent Office statistics.