E32 - Business Fluctuations; CyclesReturn

This article discusses the credit risk, and ways in which it operates in conjunction with the business cycle, as well as the development of credit risk in credit dynamics in the course of the business cycle. Damping of the fluctuations in the credit dynamics in the course of the economic cycle is devoted to, for example, Frait, Komárková (2008). Models of bank financing of Czech corporations and credit risk is discussed in a study Grešl, Jakubik (2008). This article aims to combine these topics and focus on the development of credit risk and its changes over the business cycle. The main hypothesis of the work will be demonstrating the possible link with credit risk financing in various sectors during the phases of the business cycle. The main objective is the analysis of linkages making adjustments and business cycle, as well as analysis of the linearity of the volume of loans and the number of adjustments to individual types of loans.

Output gap belongs between imporant indicator of central banks by their executing monetary policy despite output gap is an unobservable variable. Because of importance of accurate measurement of output gap, there are more methods for estimation. The aim of this paper is to discover if univariate and multivariate unobserved components models contribute to more precise measurement of output gap. For confirmation or refusal of this hypothesis, Clark's model (1989) and Kuttner's model (1994) will be used. All two models will be analysed and their advantages and disadvantages will be shown. Results of estimations will be compared with papers dealing with output gap for czech economy. Then, the ability of output gap to forecast inflation will be analysed. At last, multivariate unobserved componenets model will be labeled after some tests as the most suitable method for estimation of output gap.

The paper deals with an actual issue of the Euro adoption in the Central and Eastern European countries. The main goal is to assess the preparedness of candidate European countries to adopt the Euro from a perspective of the theory of Optimum Currency Areas (OCA). The measure of dynamic similarity of business cycles of selected Central and Eastern European countries (CEE), Baltic countries and the Eurozone was applied in the analysis. This measure indicates dynamic convergence trends of the CEE and Baltics towards the Eurozone. Business cycle correlation belongs to characteristics listed within a frame of the New Theory of Optimum Currency Areas approach. Particularly, the rolling window correlation of Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production time series were applied to asses the dynamic moments in the evolution of similarity in business cycles of the analysed European candidate countries and the Eurozone. The results shed some light on continuing convergence process in Baltic, CEE countries and Eurozone. A possible impact of a beginning of the global financial crisis on the business cycle correlation results are also discussed in the text.