Acta academica karviniensia 2012, 12(3):54-66 | DOI: 10.25142/aak.2012.040

ŠROTOVNÉ V KONTEXTU MODELOVÁNÍ POPTÁVKY PO AUTOMOBILECH

Marek Litzman, Luděk Kouba, Jitka Dušková
Bc. Marek Litzman, Ing. Luděk Kouba, Ph.D., Ing. Jitka Dušková, Ph.D., Ústav ekonomie PEF, Mendelova Univerzita v Brně, Zemědělská 1, 613 00 Brno, xlitzman@node.mendelu.cz, kouba@mendelu.cz, duskova@mendelu.cz

The scrappage scheme became one of the most discussed instruments within the aggregate demand stimulation during the world economic crisis 2008-2009. The aim of this paper is to suggest an equation using the available data to estimate the efficiency of the scrappage premium. The initial part of the paper introduces the history of the scrappage premium (since 1970s) and also important papers dealing with the previous schemes. The survey of significant texts focusing on the demand modelling is a base for our suggestion of the automobile demand equation. The suggested equation contents four independent variables: disposable income, car price index, price index of the basic complement (which means fuel) and a dummy variable recording a (non)implementation of the scrappage scheme.

Keywords: scrappage scheme, demand modelling, economic crisis
JEL classification: H2, H3, L62

Published: September 30, 2012  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Litzman M, Kouba L, Dušková J. ŠROTOVNÉ V KONTEXTU MODELOVÁNÍ POPTÁVKY PO AUTOMOBILECH. Acta academica karviniensia. 2012;12(3):54-66. doi: 10.25142/aak.2012.040.
Download citation

References

  1. ACEA. 2009a. Vehicle Scrapping Schemes in the European Union. [Online] [cit. 6. 10 2010.] Dostupné: <http://www.acea.be/images/uploads/files/20090406_Scrapping_schemes.pdf>.
  2. ACEA. 2009b. Vehicle Scrapping Schemes in the European Union. [Online] [cit. 23. 4 2011.] Dostupné: <http://www.acea.be/images/uploads/files/20101014_Current_Fleet_Renewal_Schemes.pdf>.
  3. ADDA, J., COPPER, R. Balladurette and Jupette A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies. NBER, 1997, Working Paper No. 6048. Dostupné: <http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/15019/1/15019.pdf>. Go to original source...
  4. ARGUEA, N. M., HSIAO, C., TAYLOR, G. A. Estimating consumer preferences using market data-an application to US automobile demand. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1994, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 1-18. Go to original source...
  5. BUTTON, K., NGOE, N., HINE, J. Modelling Vehicle Ownership and Use in Low Income Countries. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 1993, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 51-67.
  6. CARLSON, L, R. Seemingly unrelated regression and the demand for automobiles of different sizes, 1965- 75: A disaggregate approach. Journal of Business, 1978, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 243-262 Go to original source...
  7. CARLSON, L. R., UMBLE, M. Statistical demand functions for automobiles and their use for forcasting in an energy crisis. Journal of Business, 1980, Vol. 53, No. 2, pp. 193-20. Go to original source...
  8. CASSELS, S. Management of end-of-life vehicles: lessons learned from Europe for the New Zeland situation. WasteMinz Conference Paper, 2005. Dostupné: <www.wasteminz.org.nz/conference/conferencepapers2005/Sue%20Cassells.pdf>.
  9. COPPER, A., CHAN, Y., MCALINDREN, S. The Economic and Fiscal Contributions of the "Cash for Clunkers" Program- National and State Effects. Center for Automotive research, 2010, CAR Research Memorandum. Dostupné: <http://www.cargroup.org/pdfs/Cash_for_Clunkers_Report.pdf>
  10. DARGAY, J., GATELY, D. Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership worldwide: 1960-2015. Transportation Research, 1998, Research Report 97-33 Dostupné: <http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9382/RR97-33.PDF>. Go to original source...
  11. DE JONG, G., FOX, J., PIETERS, M., DALY, A.J., SMITH, R. A comparison of car ownership models. Transport Reviews [online]. 2004.Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 51-67. Go to original source...
  12. European Comission : Environment [online]. 4.6.2010 [cit. 2011-03-09]. Transport & Environment. Dostupné: <http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/transport/road.htm>.
  13. GRRENSPAN, A., COHEN, D. Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1996, Finance and Economics Discussion Series : Paper No. 96-40. Go to original source...
  14. HAHN, R., W. An economic analysis of scrappage. Journal of economics, 1995, Vol. 26, No. 2, pp. 222 - 242. Go to original source...
  15. INGRAM, G. K., LIU, Z. Motorization and Road Provision in Countries and Cities. World Bank, 1997, Policy Research Working Paper No. 1842. Dostupné: <http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1842.html>
  16. KOBOS, P. H., ERICKSON, J. D., DRENNEN, T., E. Scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth. Contemporary Economic Policy, 2003,, Vol 21, No. 2, pp.200-217. Go to original source...
  17. LEE, H., KANG, H. H. The Study of Brazilian Automobile Demand, In Decision Sciences Institute Annual Meeting Procreedings 2008. Atlanta, Georgia : DSI, 2008 Dostupné: < http://www.decisionsciences.org/Proceedings/DSI2008/docs/143-8905.pdf >.
  18. LI, S., LINN, J., SPILLER, E. Evaluating "Cash for Clunkers": Program Effects on Auto Sales, Jobs, and the Environment. Resources for the Future, 2010, Discussion paper 10-39. Dostupné: <http://www.rff.org/documents/RFF-DP-10-39.pdf> Go to original source...
  19. LICANDRO, O., SAMPAYO, A., R. The Effects of Replacement Schemes on Car Sales: The Spanish Case. Investigaciones Económicas, 2006, Vol 30, No. 2, pp239-282.
  20. MIAN, Atif; SUFI, Amir. The Effects of Fiscal Stimuls : Evidence from the 2009 'Cash for Clunkers' Program. NBER, 2010, Working Paper No. 16351. Dostupné: <http://mba.americaeconomia.com/system/files/mian_sufi.pdf>. Go to original source...
  21. PARKS, W. Determinants of Scrapping Rates for Postwar Vintage Automobiles. Econometrica, 1977, Vol. 45, No. 5, pp. 1099-1115. Go to original source...
  22. PSP. 2009. Návrh zákona o podpoře hospodářského růstu a soc.stability. [Online][cit. 19. 4 2011.] Dostupné: <http://www.psp.cz/sqw/historie.sqw?o=5&t=743&sp=1>.
  23. SANDSTRÖM, Mikael. Car age, taxation, scrappage premiums and the ELV Directive. The Research Institute of Industrial Economics. 2003, Working Paper No. 591
  24. TANNER, J. C. Long-Term Forecasting of Vehicle Ownership and Road Traffic. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1978, Vol 141, No. 1, pp.14-63. Go to original source...
  25. TRAIN, K. Qualitative Choice Analysis : Theory, Econometrics, and an Application to Automobile Demand [online]. Cambridge : The MIT Press, 1996 [cit. 2010-11-14]. Dostupné: <http://elsa.berkeley.edu/books/choice.html>. ISBN 0-262-20055-4.
  26. WALKER, P. Determinants of Auto Scrappage. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1968, Vol. 50, No. 4, pp. 503-506. Dostupné: <http://www.jstor.org/stable/1926820>. Go to original source...
  27. WHELAN, G. Modelling car ownership in Great Britain. Transportation Research, 2007, Vol 41, pp.205-219. Go to original source...
  28. WOLFF, P. The demand for passenger cars in United States. Econometrica, 1938, vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 113-129. Go to original source...
  29. Zákon č. 185/2001 Sb. : o odpadech a o změně některých dalších zákonů ve znění pozdějších předpisů. [online]. [cit. 2011-05-01].